European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice: executive summary

reposted from: http://eurheartj.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/28/19/2375#top

In general, a middle aged person with a 10-year risk of CVD death of 5% or more is regarded as at high risk. Examination of the FINRISK MONICA data (which contribute substantially to the SCORE high risk population charts) suggests that the equivalent total (fatal + non-fatal) CVD risk is about 10%.

In my experience, some charts in the 2003 ESC study confused risk of CVD death with non fatal CVD risk. "The choice of CVD mortality rather than total (fatal + non-fatal) events was deliberate although not universally popular. Non-fatal event rates are critically dependent upon definitions and the methods used in their ascertainment. " (see section)

Calculating total event rates from FINRISK suggests that, at the level (5%) at which risk management advice is likely to be intensified, total event risk is about 10%.

European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice:

reposted from: http://eurheartj.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/28/19/2375

This is a major 2007 study:

Fourth Joint Task Force of the European Society of Cardiology

Figure 2: SCORE chart: 10-year risk of fatal CVD in populations at high CVD risk based on the following risk factors: age, gender, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol. © The European Society of Cardiology.

In November 2006 crabsallover blood pressure was 130/70 mmHg. Crabsallover total cholesterol was Total Cholesterol was 5.1 mmol/L. Crabsallover Total Cholesterol: HDL cholesterol ratio was 5.1.

Crabsallover is 52 years. Using the 50 year chart (figure 2, men, non smoker, high cvd risk) crabsallover 10 year risk of fatal CVD is 2%. Using the 55 year chart my risk is 3%.

Using the 50 year chart (figure 3, men, non smoker, low cvd risk) crabsallover 10 year risk of fatal CVD is 1%. Using the 55 year chart my risk is 2%.

Using the 50 year chart (figure 4, men, non smoker, low cvd risk, total cholesterol: HDL cholesterol ratio of 5.1) crabsallover 10 year risk of fatal CVD is 1%. Using the 55 year chart my risk is 2%.

Using the 50 year chart (figure 5, men, non smoker, high cvd risk, total cholesterol: HDL cholesterol ratio of 5.1) crabsallover 10 year risk of fatal CVD is 2%. Using the 55 year chart my risk is 4%.

In summary, whichever chart is used, my risk is 1-4% of CVD over next 10 years.