crabsallover highlights, key points, comments / links.
Showing posts with label The Singularity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Singularity. Show all posts
Thursday, 17 February 2011
Friday, 11 February 2011
Ray Kurzweil: Explains The Singularity, Longevity, exponential growth of IT
reposted from: http://singularityhub.com/2010/12/01/time-presents-10-questions-for-ray-kurzweil-hello-mainstream-video/
crabsallover highlights, key points, comments / links.
Law of Accelerating Returns - Exponential increase (doubling per year) eg Genetic Sequencing, computer power, reprogram biology - turn off fat insulin receptor gene. Humans transcend our limitations.
Bridge to a bridge to a bridge. Bridge 1: eating right and exercising >> 10-20 years - Bridge 2 - change our genes >> Bridge 3 - nanorobots will keep us healthy. Parkinsons Disease. The sky is the limit! Exponential growth of IT - protect us from those who will abuse it.
Law of Accelerating Returns - Exponential increase (doubling per year) eg Genetic Sequencing, computer power, reprogram biology - turn off fat insulin receptor gene. Humans transcend our limitations.
Bridge to a bridge to a bridge. Bridge 1: eating right and exercising >> 10-20 years - Bridge 2 - change our genes >> Bridge 3 - nanorobots will keep us healthy. Parkinsons Disease. The sky is the limit! Exponential growth of IT - protect us from those who will abuse it.
Sunday, 2 January 2011
Ray Kurzweil's vision of a 'Singularity' - don't expect it anytime soon, if ever!
reposted from: http://www.newsweek.com/2009/05/17/science-cult.html via http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=e-zimmer-can-you-live-forever&page=2
By John Horgan
Science Cult Ray Kurzweil's vision of a 'Singularity' has attracted some followers, but don't expect it anytime soon. The computer entrepreneur Ray Kurzweil says that we are on the verge of a "Singularity."
In physics, a "singularity" is an event or place, like the big bang or a black hole, where the laws of physics are stretched to the breaking point. Singularitarians (which some call themselves) have adopted the term to describe a radical transformation of consciousness that will result from breakthroughs in artificial intelligence as well as nanotechnology, biotechnology and neuroscience.
At first, Singularitarians say, we may become cyborgs, as WiFi-equipped brain chips, nanobots and genetic modifications soup up our intelligence, perception and memory. Eventually, we may abandon our flesh-and-blood selves entirely and transform our psyches into giant software programs. We will then "upload" ourselves into computers and dwell forever in cyberspace. Our transformation into immortal, God-like cyberbeings will supposedly take place not millennia or centuries from now but within the next few decades.
Kurzweil makes his case by showing graph after graph documenting the explosive progress over the past few decades in information technologies, including computers, the Internet, cell phones and so on. These advances are indeed astounding.
The problem is, some crucial scientific endeavours have made little or no progress over the past few decades.
For example, artificial-intelligence researchers, including Kurzweil himself, have invented programs that can read text, translate languages, recognize speech, interpret cardiograms and play championship-level chess. But they haven't come to close to creating the kind of artificial intelligence depicted in countless sci-fi films, from the cute R2D2 of Star Wars to the evil HAL of 2001: A Space Odyssey. Marvin Minsky, who served as an adviser for 2001, noted recently that computers still lack the common sense of a 4-year-old child; they can't even tell the difference between cats and dogs. "I wish I could tell you that we have intelligent machines," Minsky lamented, "but we don't."
Singularitarians such as Kurzweil insist that scientists will soon "reverse-engineer" the brain so that they understand exactly how it works. Many neuroscientists assume that, just as computers operate according to a machine code, so the brain's performance must depend on a "neural code"; this is the set of rules, syntax or algorithms that transforms electrical impulses emitted by brain cells into perceptions, memories, meanings, intentions. Researchers are trying to decode the brain by probing it with ever-more-powerful technologies, such as magnetic-resonance imaging, positron-emission tomography and microelectrodes.
Cracking the neural code should yield all sorts of benefits. First, the brain's programming tricks could be transferred to computers to make them smarter. Moreover, given the right interface, our brains and computers could communicate as readily as Macs and PCs. Eventually, our personal software could be extracted from our bodies for uploading into computers.
If a neural code exists, however, neuroscientists still have no idea what it is. Far from converging on a solution, scientists cannot agree whether information is represented primarily by signals from individual neurons, or brain cells, by oscillations of many neurons firing in tandem, by even higher-level waves of chaotic electrical activity sweeping through the brain or all of the above. This lack of understanding is reflected in the slow pace of research on so-called neural prostheses, which replace or supplement capacities lost because of damage to the nervous system.
The only truly successful neural prosthesis is the artificial cochlea. More than 100,000 hearing-impaired people have been equipped with those devices, which restore hearing by feeding signals from an external microphone to the auditory nerve.
Artificial retinas, light-sensitive chips that mimic the eye's signal-processing ability and stimulate the optical nerve or visual cortex, have been tested in a handful of blind subjects, but most have been able to see nothing more than phosphenes, or bright spots. A few paralyzed patients have learned to control a computer cursor "merely by thinking," as the media invariably put it, via implanted electrodes that pick up the patients' neural signals—but communicating that way remains slow and unreliable.
Kurzweil has excessive faith not only in artificial intelligence and neuroscience but also in biotechnology. In his book Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever, co-written with a physician, he claims that the Human Genome Project and related advances will soon yield cures both for specific diseases and even aging itself. The identification of specific genes underpinning inherited disease—such as Huntington's disease and immune-deficiency syndrome—has inspired researchers to devise therapies to correct the genetic malformations.
So far, scientists have carried out hundreds of clinical trials of gene therapy, and not one has been an unqualified success. The treatments have sickened some patients and even killed them. The record of cancer treatment is also dismal. Since 1971, when President Richard Nixon declared a "war on cancer," the United States has spent more than $70 billion on research, and the annual budget for the National Cancer Institute has increased by a factor of 20, from $250 million to $5 billion. Scientists have gained a much better understanding of the molecular and genetic underpinnings of cancer, but this knowledge has not yielded significant improvements in treatments. Overall cancer mortality rates in the U.S. actually rose from 1971 until the early 1990s before declining slightly over the last decade or so—largely because of a decrease in the number of male smokers.
Given the track record of treatments for inherited diseases and cancer, proclamations about the imminence of immortality are absurd.
Part of me—the part that thrilled at prospects for artificial intelligence almost 30 years ago—finds Kurzweil's prophesies highly entertaining. He raises lots of provocative questions: What would be like to be immortal? To have an IQ of 1,000? To exist not as a doomed, flesh-and-blood creature but as a piece of software that can keep redesigning itself and merging with other programs?
But another part of me—the grown-up, responsible part—worries that so many people, smart people, are taking Kurzweil's sci-fi fantasies seriously. The last thing humanity needs right now is an apocalyptic cult masquerading as science.
By John Horgan
Science Cult Ray Kurzweil's vision of a 'Singularity' has attracted some followers, but don't expect it anytime soon. The computer entrepreneur Ray Kurzweil says that we are on the verge of a "Singularity."
In physics, a "singularity" is an event or place, like the big bang or a black hole, where the laws of physics are stretched to the breaking point. Singularitarians (which some call themselves) have adopted the term to describe a radical transformation of consciousness that will result from breakthroughs in artificial intelligence as well as nanotechnology, biotechnology and neuroscience.
At first, Singularitarians say, we may become cyborgs, as WiFi-equipped brain chips, nanobots and genetic modifications soup up our intelligence, perception and memory. Eventually, we may abandon our flesh-and-blood selves entirely and transform our psyches into giant software programs. We will then "upload" ourselves into computers and dwell forever in cyberspace. Our transformation into immortal, God-like cyberbeings will supposedly take place not millennia or centuries from now but within the next few decades.
Kurzweil makes his case by showing graph after graph documenting the explosive progress over the past few decades in information technologies, including computers, the Internet, cell phones and so on. These advances are indeed astounding.
The problem is, some crucial scientific endeavours have made little or no progress over the past few decades.
For example, artificial-intelligence researchers, including Kurzweil himself, have invented programs that can read text, translate languages, recognize speech, interpret cardiograms and play championship-level chess. But they haven't come to close to creating the kind of artificial intelligence depicted in countless sci-fi films, from the cute R2D2 of Star Wars to the evil HAL of 2001: A Space Odyssey. Marvin Minsky, who served as an adviser for 2001, noted recently that computers still lack the common sense of a 4-year-old child; they can't even tell the difference between cats and dogs. "I wish I could tell you that we have intelligent machines," Minsky lamented, "but we don't."
Singularitarians such as Kurzweil insist that scientists will soon "reverse-engineer" the brain so that they understand exactly how it works. Many neuroscientists assume that, just as computers operate according to a machine code, so the brain's performance must depend on a "neural code"; this is the set of rules, syntax or algorithms that transforms electrical impulses emitted by brain cells into perceptions, memories, meanings, intentions. Researchers are trying to decode the brain by probing it with ever-more-powerful technologies, such as magnetic-resonance imaging, positron-emission tomography and microelectrodes.
Cracking the neural code should yield all sorts of benefits. First, the brain's programming tricks could be transferred to computers to make them smarter. Moreover, given the right interface, our brains and computers could communicate as readily as Macs and PCs. Eventually, our personal software could be extracted from our bodies for uploading into computers.
If a neural code exists, however, neuroscientists still have no idea what it is. Far from converging on a solution, scientists cannot agree whether information is represented primarily by signals from individual neurons, or brain cells, by oscillations of many neurons firing in tandem, by even higher-level waves of chaotic electrical activity sweeping through the brain or all of the above. This lack of understanding is reflected in the slow pace of research on so-called neural prostheses, which replace or supplement capacities lost because of damage to the nervous system.
The only truly successful neural prosthesis is the artificial cochlea. More than 100,000 hearing-impaired people have been equipped with those devices, which restore hearing by feeding signals from an external microphone to the auditory nerve.
Artificial retinas, light-sensitive chips that mimic the eye's signal-processing ability and stimulate the optical nerve or visual cortex, have been tested in a handful of blind subjects, but most have been able to see nothing more than phosphenes, or bright spots. A few paralyzed patients have learned to control a computer cursor "merely by thinking," as the media invariably put it, via implanted electrodes that pick up the patients' neural signals—but communicating that way remains slow and unreliable.
Kurzweil has excessive faith not only in artificial intelligence and neuroscience but also in biotechnology. In his book Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever, co-written with a physician, he claims that the Human Genome Project and related advances will soon yield cures both for specific diseases and even aging itself. The identification of specific genes underpinning inherited disease—such as Huntington's disease and immune-deficiency syndrome—has inspired researchers to devise therapies to correct the genetic malformations.
So far, scientists have carried out hundreds of clinical trials of gene therapy, and not one has been an unqualified success. The treatments have sickened some patients and even killed them. The record of cancer treatment is also dismal. Since 1971, when President Richard Nixon declared a "war on cancer," the United States has spent more than $70 billion on research, and the annual budget for the National Cancer Institute has increased by a factor of 20, from $250 million to $5 billion. Scientists have gained a much better understanding of the molecular and genetic underpinnings of cancer, but this knowledge has not yielded significant improvements in treatments. Overall cancer mortality rates in the U.S. actually rose from 1971 until the early 1990s before declining slightly over the last decade or so—largely because of a decrease in the number of male smokers.
Given the track record of treatments for inherited diseases and cancer, proclamations about the imminence of immortality are absurd.
Part of me—the part that thrilled at prospects for artificial intelligence almost 30 years ago—finds Kurzweil's prophesies highly entertaining. He raises lots of provocative questions: What would be like to be immortal? To have an IQ of 1,000? To exist not as a doomed, flesh-and-blood creature but as a piece of software that can keep redesigning itself and merging with other programs?
But another part of me—the grown-up, responsible part—worries that so many people, smart people, are taking Kurzweil's sci-fi fantasies seriously. The last thing humanity needs right now is an apocalyptic cult masquerading as science.
Tuesday, 28 December 2010
Ray Kurzweil: Explains The Singularity
reposted from: http://bigthink.com/raykurzweil
links by crabsallover
Ray Kurzweil: Well, by 2020 we’ll have computers that are powerful enough to simulate the human brain, but we won’t be finish yet with reverse engineering the human brain and understanding its methods.
Ray Kurzweil: Well, it’s not the case that I’m only looking at the optimistic side. I am an optimist. And I do think we’ve been helped more than we’ve been hurt by technology already. Human life expecting was 37 in 1800. And human life was very hard disaster from labor field, disease field and so on.
Ray Kurzweil: I’ve been very active in talking about the downside of technology, and there are dangers. A danger we face right now is the ability for a bio-terrorist to use our biological sciences to reprogram a biological virus to be deadly or communicable.
links by crabsallover
One of my main themes, and I’ve developed this thesis over 30 years, is that information technology grows exponentially; the power of computers are understanding the human brain, specializes solution of brain scanning, the number of bits we move in the internet. Many different measures of information technology double every year, or every 11 months, 13 months; depending on what you’re measuring. These technologies will be a million times more powerful within 20 years.
In fact, the speed of exponential growth is itself speeding up. So, in 25 years these technologies will be a billion times more powerful than they are today. And we’ve already seen that kind of progress.
When I was an undergraduate we all shared computer at MIT that took up half of a building. The computer and your cellphone today is a million times cheaper and a thousand times more powerful. That’s a billion fold increase in price performance of computing since I was an undergraduate.
By 2029, and I’ve been quite consistent on this date, we will have completed the reverse engineering of the human brain. And we’ve already made very good progress on that. We’ve reversed engineered a number at different regions, like the cerebellum, which is responsible for our skill formation and slices of cerebral cortex where we do our cursive thinking and the auditory cortex, the visual cortex and so on.
By 2029, we’ll have reverse engineered and modeled and simulated all the regions of the brain. And that will provide us the software/algorithmic methods to simulate you know, all of the human brains capabilities including our emotional intelligence. And computers at that time will be far more powerful than the human brain. And we’ll be able to create machines that really do have subtlety and suppleness of human intelligence. And they’ll combine that power with ways in which machines are already superior to us. They can impart us all of human knowledge with the few keystrokes, it can remember billions of things accurately. They can share knowledge in electronic speeds that are million times faster than the human language.
So, it will be very powerful combination.
But the last point I’ll make is that it’s not some alien invasion of intelligent machines coming from Mars to invade us. It’s coming from within our civilization. And the whole point of it is to extent our reach. Ever since we picked up a stick to reach a higher branch, we’ve used our tools to extend our reach.
We can now already extend our reach mentally. I can take out device from my pocket and access all of human knowledge in a few keystrokes. Half of the farmers in China have these devices and could do the same thing; is pointing a real cultural revolution in China and around the world. And these tools are continued to grow exponentially in power.
The singularity is not just that point where we achieve human model and intelligence on a machine. That will start a new revolution where these machines will continue to grow exponentially in power. They’ll be able to actually improve their own software design.
By 2045, we’ll have expanded the intelligence of our human machine civilization a billion fold. That will be singularity and we borrow this metaphor from physics to talk about an event horizon. It’s hard to see beyond.
But I’ve actually written extensively about the dangers of all this.
Bill Joyce’s article on the cover of Wired Magazine, why the future does need, which talked about the grave dangers of Genetics Nanotechnology and Robotics, came from my book. He says at the beginning of the article, he got these ideas from my book, The Age of Spiritual Machines. And chapter 8 of the Singularity is Near is called the deeply intertwine promise versus parallel of GNR, Genetics Nanotechnology and Robotics.
I’m working extensively with the army to develop a rapid respond system to deal with the possible abuse of biotechnology. The same technologies set are empowering us to reprogram biology away from cancer and heart disease, could also be use by a terrorist to reprogram a biological virus to be more deadly or more communicable.
And the good news is we actually have the scientific tools to defend ourselves just like we defend ourselves from software viruses with a rapid response system. Then we need to put a system like that in place.
But it’s not accurate to say that I’m only painting a rosy future and that I have a utopian vision. My vision is not utopian.
The power of these technologies will grow exponentially, I believe that is inexorable that has gone on for the last 110 years since 1890 senses. What we do with these technologies is not preordained, that future history has not been written. I am very concerned about the downsides. I’ve written extensively about them and in fact, I’m working on defending against those. So, I am optimistic that we will get more promise than parallel but they both exist.
Technology has been a double edge sword ever since fire and stone tools.
And we have the ideas to combat that, but they’re not yet in place and. So I think that’s an existential risk we need to deal with very quickly. There’ll be new dangers from these new technologies.
I’m optimistic but not sanguine, and I’m not necessarily convinced that we won’t encounter painful episodes. I think, overall, we’ll be help more than we’re hurt. But you only have to look to the 20th century: we had a 180 million people die in the world of the 20th century. That scale of destruction was made possible by technology. We’ve also helped ourselves enormously because human life expectancy was 48 in 1900.
We need to address this dangers and downsides. That’s what worries me.
Recorded on April 27, 2009
'Humans will merge with machines in The Singularity to become Homo Superior' Michio Kaku
crabsallover says 'By scanning every neuron in our brains with MRI, we can upload them to a global supercomputer.'
reposted from: Sci Fi Science’s episode “AI Uprising” via http://singularityhub.com/2010/12/15/michio-kaku-if-you-cant-beat-the-singularity-join-it-video/
Michio Kaku
Are you worried about the coming robot apocalypse? Does research into artificial general intelligence freak you out? Do you look at computers and start dreading for the safety of your children? If so, world renowned physicist and science champion Michio Kaku has a message for you: instead of fearing technology, humanity should learn how to become part of it. Kaku hosts a great TV show called Sci Fi Science wherein he explores some of the amazing technologies being developed today, and the out-of-this-world consequences they could bring tomorrow. Recently, he took a look at the Technological Singularity, which as he puts it will be “a time when computer power grows without limit, surpassing human intelligence, sweeping aside everything in its path.” Sounds scary, huh? Well, after talking to experts around the world, Kaku decides there’s only one reasonable way to deal with the Singularity: join it. By merging with computers, humanity will not only preserve itself, it will expand into realms it cannot comprehend in the present. Watch clips from Kaku’s Singularity episode in the video above. By the end Kaku is openly recruiting us to join him in embracing the machine.
Michio Kaku is one of the most famous modern day presenters in science. He’s authored several best sellers, hosts two radio programs, has the Sci Fi Science TV show (now in its second season), and writes a blog on BigThink. As we’ve shown in the past, he seems to delight in answering questions from average readers and viewers, and no subject seems too far-fetched for him to consider and explain. It’s only fitting then that Kaku take a long look at the Singularity and consider the implications of exponential growth in artificial intelligence. While Kaku doesn’t espouse as optimistic approach to the subject as many others, he does end up with a very positive outlook on what the growth of AI could mean for humanity. I tend to share his view. Accelerating technology is only scary when you view it as separate from ourselves. Once you realize that we are already increasing the ways we incorporate it into our everyday lives (how long do you go between using your phone, the internet, or computer?) continuing along that path starts to make sense. Don’t fear the machine conquering humanity. The machine will become one with humanity.
The following clips were (apparently) taken from Sci Fi Science’s episode “AI Uprising”. The video was uploaded to YouTube by ImYoda69, I make no guarantees of its copyright status.
reposted from: Sci Fi Science’s episode “AI Uprising” via http://singularityhub.com/2010/12/15/michio-kaku-if-you-cant-beat-the-singularity-join-it-video/
Michio Kaku
Michio Kaku: If You Can’t Beat the Singularity, Join It
December 15th, 2010 by Aaron Saenz
 |
| Michio Kaku joins The Singularity |
Michio Kaku is one of the most famous modern day presenters in science. He’s authored several best sellers, hosts two radio programs, has the Sci Fi Science TV show (now in its second season), and writes a blog on BigThink. As we’ve shown in the past, he seems to delight in answering questions from average readers and viewers, and no subject seems too far-fetched for him to consider and explain. It’s only fitting then that Kaku take a long look at the Singularity and consider the implications of exponential growth in artificial intelligence. While Kaku doesn’t espouse as optimistic approach to the subject as many others, he does end up with a very positive outlook on what the growth of AI could mean for humanity. I tend to share his view. Accelerating technology is only scary when you view it as separate from ourselves. Once you realize that we are already increasing the ways we incorporate it into our everyday lives (how long do you go between using your phone, the internet, or computer?) continuing along that path starts to make sense. Don’t fear the machine conquering humanity. The machine will become one with humanity.
The following clips were (apparently) taken from Sci Fi Science’s episode “AI Uprising”. The video was uploaded to YouTube by ImYoda69, I make no guarantees of its copyright status.
Related Posts:
- Michio Kaku: Invisibility Cloaks, Programmable Matter, Singularity
- Time Presents 10 Questions for Kurzweil: Hello, Mainstream
- PBS Discusses Kurzweil, The Singularity, and Bio-ethics
- Michael Vassar's Insightful Look at the History of Science (video)
- Four Great Science Fiction Authors Weigh In on the Singularity (video)
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